Putin Engages India in Key Defence and Energy Talks

Russian President Vladimir Putin commenced a two-day visit to India on March 15, 2024, focusing on pressing issues related to defence cooperation and energy trade. This visit marks Putin’s first trip to India since the onset of the Ukraine conflict and comes at a time when India is navigating increased pressure from the United States regarding its ongoing purchases of Russian oil.

Accompanied by a senior delegation, including Defence Minister Andrei Belousov, Putin’s agenda is expected to cover potential arms deals, including discussions around fighter jets. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will host a private dinner for Putin on Thursday, setting the stage for a summit meeting and a business session the following day.

Defence Cooperation and Trade Dynamics

The talks will likely spotlight bilateral trade, which has seen significant growth, reaching $68.7 billion in 2024-25, nearly six times the pre-pandemic level. However, India’s exports to Russia remain modest at only $4.88 billion. Indian officials are advocating for expanded market access for sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and services.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov highlighted the importance of Russia’s advanced S-400 air defence systems, which are already operational in India. The country currently operates three units, with two more pending delivery under a 2018 deal that has faced delays due to the Ukraine conflict and subsequent Western sanctions. There are indications that Russia may propose co-production of the Su-57 fighter jets during these discussions.

India’s relationship with Russia has evolved, with a noticeable reduction in the reliance on Russian arms imports. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia’s share in India’s arms imports has decreased from 76 percent during 2009-2013 to 36 percent in 2019-2023. Despite this shift, India continues to depend on Russia for spare parts for its legacy military equipment.

Strategic Energy Considerations

The timing of Putin’s visit follows the imposition of 50 percent tariffs by the United States on most Indian products in August 2024, a response to India’s purchase of Russian oil, which Washington argues funds the war in Ukraine. India has emerged as a significant buyer of Russian crude, benefiting from lower prices while providing Russia a crucial export market after losing access to European buyers.

While India has recently curtailed its crude purchases in light of sanctions on Russian companies such as Rosneft and Lukoil, officials express concern that any new energy or defence agreements with Russia could complicate trade negotiations with the United States. Peskov dismissed concerns over U.S. tariffs, stating, “What concerns us is how we are going to maintain and increase the volume of our bilateral business with India without allowing anyone to interfere.”

Analysts suggest that while there may be a decrease in energy purchases under U.S. pressure, the overall trajectory of India-Russia ties will remain stable due to their strategic interdependence. Nandan Unnikrishnan from the Observer Research Foundation indicated that both nations recognize the necessity of their collaboration.

In summary, as Putin engages with Modi, the discussions will unfold against a backdrop of evolving geopolitical dynamics, with both sides keen to maintain a robust partnership that addresses their respective strategic needs. The visit underscores the critical nature of India-Russia relations in a rapidly changing global landscape.