Rail Industry Confidence Plummets as Recruitment Freezes Intensify

A recent survey of 125 railway business leaders conducted by the Railway Industry Association (RIA) reveals a significant decline in confidence within the UK rail market. The study, carried out by independent polling company Savanta in October and November 2025, indicates that a majority of rail businesses are either freezing recruitment or reducing their workforce.

The survey found that 64% of rail business leaders expect the rail market to contract over the next year, a sharp increase from 48% in a similar survey conducted in 2024. Only 12% of respondents believe the sector will experience growth, down from 26% the previous year. Among the companies surveyed, 62% are either halting recruitment or actively cutting jobs, with 34% reporting layoffs. Furthermore, a striking 85% anticipate a hiatus in rail work over the coming year.

In response to these challenges, many companies are prioritising work outside the UK and implementing recruitment freezes or slowing hiring processes. Interestingly, the number of leaders predicting their businesses will contract in the next year has decreased by six percentage points year-on-year to 23%. Conversely, those expecting growth has dropped by two percentage points to 44%.

Concerns Over Market Stability

RIA Chief Executive Darren Caplan expressed deep concern regarding the findings, stating, “Rail passenger, freight and revenue levels are rising and more capacity will be required in the future, yet confidence in the UK rail market is falling and businesses are freezing recruitment or reducing headcount.” Despite these troubling indicators, Caplan noted that individual rail businesses generally remain optimistic about their capacity for growth, particularly in international markets.

The RIA has long warned about the cyclical nature of rail infrastructure and rolling stock investment, highlighting potential disruptions as the sector restructures. Caplan emphasized the urgent need for measures to bolster confidence among rail suppliers, stating that without action, skilled workers may transition to other sectors or seek opportunities abroad.

Caplan continued, “RIA and our members want to be optimistic about a positive future for UK rail and we recognise major rail projects such as the Transpennine Route Upgrade, East West Rail, Midlands Rail Hub, and Docklands Light Rail extension. However, significant steps do need to be taken in the short term to bring more confidence to the rail market now.”

Call for Government Action

The RIA urges the UK Government to provide detailed information regarding rail enhancement projects within its Infrastructure Pipeline. Additionally, a comprehensive rolling stock strategy and pipeline are needed urgently. Clarity regarding innovative funding options, whether public or third-party, is essential. Major rail clients are also encouraged to outline their short- and medium-term spending plans without delay, especially in light of recent government spending reviews and budget priorities.

Caplan concluded that these initiatives could help alleviate current market confidence issues and provide necessary certainty for suppliers as the rail sector undergoes restructuring and the establishment of Great British Railways in the coming years.