OPEC Increases Oil Demand Forecast for 2026 by 100,000 bpd

Global oil demand is projected to rise by 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, according to a report released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday. This marks an increase of 100,000 bpd from previous estimates, driven by anticipated economic growth in key oil-consuming regions, including OECD America, OECD Europe, and parts of the Middle East and Africa.

In its latest forecast, OPEC maintained its demand growth estimate for the current year at 1.29 million bpd, expecting global consumption to reach 106.36 million bpd by the fourth quarter of 2023. Looking ahead, the expected average global oil consumption for 2026 is 106.52 million bpd, reflecting a slight upward revision that underscores optimism regarding economic performance.

Changes in Supply Forecasts

While OPEC has raised its demand growth projection, it has revised down its forecast for supply from producers outside the OPEC+ alliance by 100,000 bpd. The expected growth in non-OPEC+ liquids production for 2023 remains steady at 800,000 bpd, averaging 54.0 million bpd.

The United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina are anticipated to lead production increases among non-OPEC+ countries. Notably, the United States will contribute a growth of 310,000 bpd this year, marking it as the key driver of non-OPEC+ oil production growth. However, a significant shift is expected in 2026, when Brazil is projected to take the lead in production growth among non-OPEC+ producers. OPEC estimates Brazil’s annual production growth will reach 160,000 bpd, compared to the U.S. increase of 130,000 bpd.

Overall, non-OPEC+ production is expected to grow by 600,000 bpd to average 54.7 million bpd in 2026, a downward revision of 100,000 bpd from last month’s assessment. The primary drivers of liquids production growth will continue to be Brazil, the U.S., Canada, and Argentina.

The adjustments made by OPEC highlight the dynamic nature of the global oil market, where demand and supply forecasts are closely interlinked with economic developments across leading consumer regions. As the world moves towards 2026, these trends will play a critical role in shaping the oil landscape.