Iran and Russia Challenge U.S. Influence in Caucasus Peace Deal

The geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus is shifting as Iran and Russia have pledged to counteract the increasing influence of the United States following a provisional peace deal signed on August 8, 2023. This agreement, reached at the White House among U.S. President Donald Trump, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, is seen as a significant diplomatic maneuver, yet it is laden with uncertainties and challenges ahead.

While the Joint Declaration aims to usher in an era of “eternal peace,” its provisions remain vague and non-binding, functioning more as a memorandum of understanding than a solid contract. The signatories have merely committed to ongoing discussions regarding a lasting peace settlement. The declaration notably omits specific references to pivotal issues, such as Azerbaijan’s requirement for Armenia to amend its constitution to formally recognize Baku’s sovereignty over the contested Nagorno Karabakh region, which Azerbaijan regained control over in 2023.

One of the more contentious points is the proposed corridor connecting Azerbaijan’s mainland to its Nakhchivan exclave, which would facilitate access for Azerbaijani citizens. The plan suggests U.S. management of this corridor, a factor that remains uncertain. The Joint Declaration emphasizes the intent of U.S. and Armenian officials to pursue this goal, yet critical operational details and a timeline for negotiations are still unclear.

Analysts have voiced skepticism regarding the agreement’s potential impact. Joshua Kucera, a senior analyst for Crisis Group, remarked, “While this summit was a step forward in the peace process, the agreements reached leave a lot of questions unanswered.” He further noted that some of the motivations for Armenia and Azerbaijan may have stemmed from a desire to align with Trump’s administration.

The corridor has been dubbed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a title that may serve to bolster U.S. engagement in the region. As President Trump’s personal brand becomes intertwined with this initiative, he has a vested interest in ensuring progress, creating a dynamic that could influence Armenia and Azerbaijan to remain committed to the peace process.

Yet the U.S. strategy faces formidable opposition from both Russia and Iran. Russian political scientist Sergei Markov has articulated concerns that the establishment of a U.S. semi-state military presence in Armenia would undermine Russian interests and affect Iran’s security, given the proximity of these developments to its northern border. Markov stated, “This changes the entire strategic situation throughout the South Caucasus.”

Iranian officials have also expressed their intent to thwart any plans perceived as threats to their national security. Ali Akbar Velayati, a former Iranian foreign minister and advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, described the corridor as a “political plot” that endangers Iranian interests. He warned that a U.S.-managed corridor would not be accepted, stating, “Iran will not permit it.”

The Kremlin has approached the situation with caution, with Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova indicating that increased U.S. involvement could heighten tensions in the Caucasus. She articulated a hope that external influences would contribute positively to the peace agenda rather than complicating it further.

Domestically, Prime Minister Pashinyan is likely to encounter significant opposition as public sentiment in Armenia remains divided. Recent polls indicate that only about one-third of Armenians believe the country is moving in the right direction. Nima Khorrami, an associate research fellow at the OSCE Academy in Bishkek, noted that while the peace deal offers potential pathways for economic diversification and strategic autonomy, its success will depend on managing internal divisions and external pressures.

As the situation unfolds, it is clear that numerous obstacles could impede the progress of the TRIPP initiative. Kucera succinctly stated, “If Trump is looking for an easy peacemaking win, he’s not there yet in the South Caucasus. A lot of hard work remains to be done to achieve a real, sustainable peace.” The outcome of these discussions will be critical not only for the involved nations but also for the broader geopolitical balance in the region.