Ukraine’s War: Unveiling the Environmental Toll of Conflict

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is inflicting severe environmental and climate-related damage that threatens to outlast the war itself. Despite being located far from the frontline, the Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas is grappling with the repercussions of Russia’s military actions. Associate Professor Lidiia Davybida describes the situation as fraught with uncertainty, marked by air raid alerts and frequent electricity outages. The university has previously suffered a missile strike, leading to significant infrastructure damage, although no casualties were reported.

The conflict has not only disrupted education but also drained resources as faculty and students join the military effort, leaving fewer new students to enroll. Davybida emphasizes the resilience of her team, stating, “We adapt – moving lectures online when needed, adjusting schedules, and finding ways to keep research going despite limited opportunities and reduced funding.”

Assessing Environmental Impact through Research

Davybida’s research focuses on utilizing geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing to monitor the environmental consequences of the war. In her recent publication, she analyzed data from the Sentinel-5P satellite and the Google Earth Engine to assess the air quality impacts of warfare in Ukraine. Her findings indicate a paradoxical decrease in levels of common pollutants such as carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide, attributed to the significant disruption of economic activities caused by the war.

The environmental ramifications extend beyond air quality. Davybida warns of increased concentrations of aerosols and pollutants from military activities. “High ozone concentrations damage sensitive vegetation and crops,” she states, highlighting how military operations can introduce harmful substances into the environment. Such pollutants can not only disrupt local climate patterns but also lead to long-term ecological imbalances.

One of the most alarming incidents is the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam by Russian forces in June 2023. This act has been linked to the release of approximately 1.7 cubic kilometers of sediment contaminated with heavy metals and other pollutants. An international research team combined field surveys and remote-sensing data to quantify the environmental damage, revealing that while the ecosystem may recover partially within five years, the long-term consequences of the toxic sludge remain uncertain.

The Broader Implications of Military Actions

The war’s environmental impact is not confined to Ukraine. A collaborative study led by researcher Mathijs Harmsen at the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency investigated how the conflict influences global climate policy. Using an integrated assessment model, the team projected a global reduction of 1–5% in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 as a result of increased fossil fuel prices and a shift toward renewable energy sources.

Despite these findings, Harmsen cautions against assuming a net positive effect. He argues that the war undermines international cooperation, crucial for achieving renewable energy goals. The recent intensification of Ukraine’s military actions against fossil fuel infrastructure could lead to even greater environmental ramifications than those explored in their study.

Elsewhere, Toru Kobayakawa from the Japan International Cooperation Agency has developed a model to estimate the carbon footprint of Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. His research indicates that reconstruction may generate approximately 741 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent over a decade, a figure significantly higher than Ukraine’s pre-war emissions.

The challenges of data collection in active conflict zones complicate these assessments. Davybida notes that environmental monitoring stations often suffer damage during military engagements, limiting scientists’ ability to gather accurate data.

Efforts to understand the environmental costs of war are further hampered by the lack of comprehensive data on military emissions. According to a 2022 estimate, military emissions account for approximately 5.5% of global emissions. This level of pollution would position the military sector as the world’s fourth-largest carbon emitter if treated as a nation.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) currently lacks binding requirements for military emissions reporting, leading to significant data gaps. Researchers like Benjamin Neimark at Queen Mary University of London are advocating for improved transparency in military emissions reporting to address this critical issue.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is also involved in addressing the environmental impacts of war. The organization has been monitoring debris management in Gaza since the outbreak of conflict in October 2023, although access restrictions have hindered on-the-ground assessments.

The cumulative environmental toll of war is staggering, with estimates suggesting that the Israel-Gaza conflict alone has generated 32 million tonnes of carbon emissions in its initial 15 months. This figure underscores the urgent need for integrated environmental considerations in humanitarian planning and recovery efforts.

Davybida emphasizes the long-term consequences of armed conflict on the environment, stating, “Armed conflicts cause profound and often overlooked environmental damage that persists long after the fighting stops.” By recognizing and monitoring these impacts, there is hope for informed recovery efforts aimed at protecting public health and ensuring a sustainable future for affected regions.