Portugal Local Elections Show Tight Races in Major Cities

Exit polls from Portugal’s local elections on March 15, 2024, reveal a highly competitive atmosphere in major cities, particularly in Lisbon and Porto. In Lisbon, incumbent Mayor Carlos Moedas of the center-right party is locked in a tight race with Alexandra Leitão of the Socialist Party, with both candidates projected to garner between 37 percent and 42 percent of the vote. In Porto, a similar scenario unfolds as conservative Pedro Duarte faces off against former MEP and Socialist Party candidate Manuel Pizarro, with results too close to call.

According to projections from the Catholic University of Portugal, published by state broadcaster RTP, the far-right Chega party has not secured victories in the largest cities, although it remains positioned to influence outcomes in various municipalities. The party, which contested 307 of Portugal’s 308 city councils, has struggled to gain traction in urban areas where it aimed to resonate with voters feeling neglected by the central government.

In Faro, the capital of the southern Algarve region, exit polls commissioned by SIC television indicate that António Pina, a Socialist Party candidate, is leading in the vote count. This development is notable as Chega had anticipated making inroads in this region, where local discontent has been prevalent.

Another significant municipal election is underway in Sintra, Portugal’s second-most populous municipality. Here, far-right influencer Rita Matias is projected to finish in third place, further underscoring Chega’s underperformance in key urban centers.

Housing affordability emerged as the primary concern among voters during this election cycle. Rising home and rental prices have galvanized public demand for local leaders to take decisive action. This election is characterized as one of the most contested in Portuguese history, largely due to term limits and the departure of numerous mayors to pursue national office, resulting in the absence of incumbents in nearly half of the country’s 308 municipalities.

Voter turnout has been a pressing issue, with projections suggesting that between 43 percent and 48 percent of eligible voters abstained from participating in the elections. Participation rates in municipal elections have been declining steadily since 2009, with 46 percent of voters opting out in the previous election held in 2021. The fatigue experienced by the electorate is compounded by a series of national elections and a European Parliament vote conducted since 2023.

Looking ahead, Portuguese voters will return to the polls in January 2025 to elect a successor to outgoing President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. Among the candidates are André Ventura, the leader of Chega, and Admiral Henrique Gouveia de Melo, noted for his role in overseeing the country’s Covid vaccine rollout. However, Gouveia de Melo faces criticism from those wary of a military figure assuming the presidency.

As the results from this election unfold, the implications for local governance and national politics remain significant, potentially reshaping the landscape of Portuguese leadership in the years to come.